The S-Curve: How Businesses ACTUALLY Grow

This is what a business’ growth curve looks like.

S-curve

It’s a thing. It has a name. It’s called an S-Curve.

See how it looks like an S?

It always looks like an S. Always. That’s why it’s called an S-Curve.

Keep that in mind. We’ll come back to it in a few minutes.

I had a deep conversation with a student recently.

She’s been working on list growth this year. (List Explosion people? She’s running a Campaign Trail. Not List Explosion people? A Campaign Trail is one of the four mix-and-match list growth strategies in List Explosion, the others being London Blitz, Rising Tide, and Royal Treatment.) She’s been working very hard for three months.

She’s not seeing results.

(Well, she’s seeing results. She’s just not seeing growth.)

This is causing some considerable and understandable distress.

Her main questions are these:

If I’m not seeing growth yet, when will I see growth?
If I’m not seeing growth yet, why should I believe that I will?

While these are very common questions for a growing business, I hear them from a new perspective now. I have been working for 11 years on this site, and it’s been a long time since I’ve tried to grow anything. I did a bunch of stuff at the beginning but at this point, most of what I do for IttyBiz is maintenance.

But now that I’m creating a YouTube channel on a completely different topic, I can, from my own experience, empathize with this ittybiz owner in a way I haven’t been able to for a long time. It doesn’t matter how many list subscribers, or Twitter followers, or Facebook people I have – I had to start on YouTube like anybody else.

And damn. It was HARD.

So, with that in mind, I thought I’d tackle our heroine’s situation head on, in the hopes that it helps her and helps you.

I have done this in the form of a letter.

Dear List Growing Rockstar,

Hi.

It seems like you’re working on outreach.

I’m going to guess that you’re hustling your ass off right now. If you’re like most of us in the hustle our asses place, you’re not getting results that are REMOTELY commensurate with the amount of effort you’re putting in.

You’re commenting your tushie off.

You’re interviewing.

You’re being helpful in social media.

You’re putting out quality content.

Maybe you’re doing other list growth stuff, too! You’re tweaking blog posts, and improving your calls to action, and making (even more) content upgrades.

Most of your day is taken up thinking, planning, doing, and obsessing about growing your list, and this has been going on for a while now.

And you have four new subscribers.

You look at this and think to yourself, “All that work for four subscribers?! That’s not nearly enough.”

I want you to know that I hear you.

When you say, “That’s not nearly enough”?

No. It’s not. You’re right.

But that’s not how it works. Maybe you would like someone to explain to you how it does work?

I’ll do my best.

Here’s how outreach works.

Someone gets exposed to you in some way. They hear you on a podcast, maybe, or they see you give a helpful answer to a question on Facebook.

This is the first time they’ve ever been exposed to you in their whole entire life.

What happens next?

Do they say, “Holy shit, that was amazing?!” then click through to your website and immediately sign up for your mailing list?

Think about it. I know it seems like “potential subscribers” are confusing, alien beings with completely opaque motivations and behaviors, but they’re not. They’re just like you.

So, to understand them, you have to look at what you do. Do you say, “Holy shit, that was amazing?!” then click through to a website and immediately sign up for a mailing list?

No, you don’t.

They don’t either. That’s not how it happens.

Here’s what actually happens.

Person hears you on the podcast, or sees your helpful comment on Facebook.

Person says to themselves, “Huh. Good point.” Or, “That was funny.” Or, “I should try that.”

Right? OK. Now, what do they do next?

THEY DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL.

They listen to the next podcast. They watch the next viral video on Facebook. THEY DO NOT DO ANYTHING RELATED TO YOU IN ANY WAY AND THEY DO NOT THINK OF YOU EVER AGAIN.

Flash forward an unspecified amount of time. They see you answer another question on Facebook. Or they hear you on another podcast. What happens?

They hear you on the podcast and go, “Is that name familiar? I don’t remember.”

And then they think, “Huh. Good point.” Or, “She’s funny.” Or, “I should try that.”

AND THEN THEY DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL.

They listen to the next podcast. They watch the next viral video on Facebook. THEY DO NOT DO ANYTHING RELATED TO YOU IN ANY WAY AND THEY DO NOT THINK OF YOU EVER AGAIN.

Flash forward yet another unspecified amount of time. They see you answer another question on Facebook. Or they hear you on another podcast. What happens?

They hear you on the podcast and go, “Oh, I remember that woman!”

And then they go, “Huh. Good point.” Or, “She’s funny.” Or, “I should try that.”

AND THEN THEY DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL.

They listen to the next podcast. They watch the next viral video on Facebook. THEY DO NOT DO ANYTHING RELATED TO YOU IN ANY WAY AND THEY DO NOT THINK OF YOU EVER AGAIN.

An average of TEN EXPOSURES LATER, they take an action of some kind.

At some point in the process, on exposure 6, or 9, or 13, or 17, they take you up on your call to action. They check out your free download, or your podcast, or your YouTube channel. They do what you asked them to do.

That’s how it works.

Every now and again, you’ll get the right person on the right day and they’ll take you up on your call to action on the first exposure. This happens in one of three cases:

They already have a burning problem, and you just happened to offer a solution.
They are a 100% perfect demographic match.
They’re intrepid and they like new stuff.

For all other humans, you’re not going to get nothin’ on the first exposure. The second and third aren’t looking so hot either.

Let’s see this in action.

We all think we understand it in theory. But let me tell you, when you put your most recent video up an hour and a half ago and it has eight views and you’re pretty sure three of them are yours? And it’s a Saturday, so you have ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH YOUR TIME EXCEPT OBSESS?

Yeah, the theory flies out the window real fast.

So let’s look at it in action, in the hopes that it’s more visceral and real.

You go on a podcast that has 10,000 monthly downloads. Sounds like a lot, right?

Well, I’m not a podcaster, but I’m guessing that if the podcast has that many monthly downloads, it has a quarter of that in weekly downloads. So if you go on this week’s podcast, you have a theoretical reach of 2,500.

Several hundred didn’t listen. They think they’re going to listen later, but they won’t, because their mother-in-law is in town and she’s being an absolute witch at the moment. They don’t have time to pee, let alone listen to some stranger talk to some other stranger about some thing they don’t give a crap about.

Several hundred listened for five to twenty minutes. They weren’t into the topic, or they weren’t into the topic that day. Or they had to get back to that meeting. Or their train ride ended. Or the babysitter showed up.

A few hundred listened to the whole thing and thought it was… fine. They were on the treadmill, or in the car, and it provided a pleasant diversion, but they weren’t exactly about to pull over on the belt line to download your free checklist.

A few hundred more listened and thought it was good. They were also on the highway / treadmill / dog walking detail, so they didn’t do anything either.

Maybe 50 people listened to every word and genuinely liked the episode.

You know what those 50 people did? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL.

In a few days, you go on a different podcast. It also has 10,000 monthly downloads, translating into a potential reach of 2,500.

Several hundred didn’t listen.

Several hundred listened for 5 – 20 minutes.

A few hundred thought it was fine.

A few hundred thought it was good.

Fifty really liked it.

Three (3!) of those people listened to the first podcast.

You now have thousands of people who have been exposed to you once and THREE people who have been exposed to you twice.

In a few days, you go on a different podcast. It also has 10,000 monthly downloads, also translating into a potential reach of 2,500.

Several hundred still didn’t listen.

Several hundred still listened for 5 – 20 minutes.

A few hundred still thought it was fine.

A few hundred still thought it was good.

Fifty still really liked it.

Three of those people listened to the first podcast, and three listened to the second podcast. One person listened to both.

You now have thousands of people who have been exposed to you once, FIVE people who have been exposed to you twice, and ONE person who has been exposed to you three times.

You’ve been busting your ass for six weeks and these are the results?

Yeah. So far, this sucks.

Where volume kicks in is when you maximize crossover.

When you’ve been on 20 podcasts, or 50 podcasts, or 100 podcasts, two interesting things start to happen.

1.) The number of people who have listened to more than one of your interviews becomes very high. A lot of people have a second exposure, and a third, and a fourth, and so on. They are now far more likely to take you up on your call to action, because they’ve already invested two or three or four hours of their life with you.

2.) People who saw (BUT DID NOT PAY ATTENTION) to the first podcast, OR the second, OR the third… are now seeing your face everywhere. Eventually their curiosity gets the best of them and they give this one a listen.

When they give this one a listen, they are preconditioned to think you’re worth listening to, because you’re freaking EVERYWHERE. So they are fast-forwarded through the 13 Exposures process because they start the game late, and you’ve got social proof on your side now. They are FAR more likely to take you up on your call to action because they’ve seen your face so. many. damn. times.

That’s how you grow.

Now, back to our handy picture.

This is what a business’ growth curve looks like.

s-curve

When you are at the dot, it NEVER EVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER EVER feels like you will make progress. You say “I can’t see growth!!!”

Bingo. You, my dear, have a functioning set of peepers.

You can’t see growth because the growth has not happened yet. It will not happen for a while. It will therefore remain invisible. YOU WILL NEVER “SEE” GROWTH UNTIL YOU HAVE ALREADY GROWN.

So, to answer your questions, inasmuch as I can.

1.) If I’m not seeing growth yet, when will I see growth?

I don’t know. It’ll probably be a while, though. Get a snack.

2.) If I’m not seeing growth yet, why should I believe that I will?

Because the alternative is quitting. If you’re not ready to quit, then your only option is to believe.

List Growing Rockstar, you are working so very hard, and in my (fairly experienced but not entirely psychic) opinion, you are doing everything right. Holding in the face of fear, in the face of uncertainty, in the face of not knowing if you’re doing it properly is about the hardest thing a person can ever do.

I cannot make it easier, but I can tell you that you have set yourself up for success in every possible way. At this point, it’s up to time and God. You are doing everything you can, and you should be proud of yourself. You’re in the arena getting your ass kicked, which is more than we can say for the other 99.9% of the people on the earth saying, “Yeah, but what if I fail?”

You are amazing, and my only hope is that one day, you will be as proud of yourself as I am of you.

Love, Naomi